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05/27/2021

JPMorgan Economist: States Ending Unemployment Early is Not Just Economics

Some believe it has to do with politics, too

Republican governors of 24 states, including Ohio, plan to cancel federal unemployment programs in June citing worker shortages, but one economist called the move politically — not economically — motivated.

"Signs of labor market tightness when looking at unemployment rates, earnings growth, and participation rates don’t appear to be driving states to end these programs early," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan. "It therefore looks like politics, rather than economics, is driving decisions regarding the early ends to these programs."

No states with Democratic governors are ending the programs, while Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont — the only GOP-led states that haven't announced such a move — are not "'pure' Red states" because they each have two senators in the Democratic caucus, Silver noted.

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