U.S. Oil Refiners Poised for Higher 2025 Q4 Profit

Top U.S. oil refiners are expected to post stronger fourth-quarter profits as product margins spurred by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war boosted earnings, energy analysts said.

Fuel makers have reaped unexpected profits this year, after from record levels in 2022, a year when a recovery in demand after the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove up fuel prices.

Diesel margins were driven largely by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries that impacted global supply, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co analyst Matthew Blair said in a note. Widening differentials for nearly every major crude grade against global benchmark Brent and falling crude prices also provided some respite for refiners, he said.

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