War in Iran Spiked Oil Prices

Oil prices surged on Monday following the United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran this weekend, as some analysts predict that it could soon reach over $100 a barrel. Amid escalating attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the region and stopped traffic in a crucial shipping route, experts tell WIRED that how the White House directs the conflict over the coming week—as well as Iran’s and other oil producers’ responses—will be key in determining just how high prices eventually climb.

The price of Brent crude jumped to almost $80 a barrel—a nearly 13 percent increase over Friday’s prices—when markets opened Sunday evening. The market has been pricing in the risk of the U.S.’ aggressive stance toward Iran for months, said Tyson Slocum, the director of the energy program at the progressive think tank Public Citizen, insulating prices from an even more severe jump. But the disorganized U.S. follow-through to the initial attack—which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader—is introducing much more uncertainty.

"For all of Trump saying, 'Hey, you know, we took out Khamenei, we knew exactly where he was,'—apparently we didn't do the same for Iran’s attack capabilities,” Slocum said. "It seems like our plan was to take out Khamenei and then hope for the best."

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